Friday, April 24, 2015

FY2014-15 Performance Snapshot - Cars & 2 Wheelers

Performance Snapshot of Car & 2-Wheeler OEM's for Financial Year 2014-15

Indian Auto Industry witnessed a sale* of 26,01,111 cars & 1,60,04,581 two-wheelers in the previous financial year! While a single digit (4%) growth was seen for passenger cars, 2 wheelers had a similar performance and could post only 8% Year-on-Year growth. The Industry had a tough time last financial year - however, only the BEST could survive and project impressive growth. New launches were critical in both sectors and supported the respective OEMs.

Passenger Cars Segment:
India's Top Passenger Car OEM's
Maruti Suzuki successfully held it's numero uno position (with Market Share of 45.01%) and the growth of 11% is just commendable! The OEM was able to successfully launch Celerio & Ciaz (co-incidentally both the car name starts with a 'C') and had the fitting replacement to its non-performing models (say Zen Estilo, A-Star, SX4). It also introduced India to AMT and we became the pioneer in world's cheapest automatic option. The AMT was later fitted to Alto K10 and found acceptance here as well. We expect the new premium hatchback & compact SUV to further strengthen the OEM's presence in the market.

Last year Hyundai proved to be the most aggressive of all car makers in terms of new product launches. Right from Grand i10 to Xcent, New i20 elite to Active the Korean automaker did tick all the right boxes (and could obtain Market Share of 16.17%). However, the sales of i10 & Verna couldn't sustain the tough competition (from its  own new launches as well!) and saw tremendous decline.

M&M could not do much in previous financial year - except the refreshed Scorpio, the Indian UV major couldn't get excitement in its portfolio. Its bread-and-butter model - Bolero could not post the usual numbers as well due to poor rural sentiments and less rains. Its 3rd position is strongly challenged by Honda and we foresee the Japanese OEM to clearly overtake M&M this financial year. M&M is pulling its socks and is planning a slew of launches (say refreshed XUV, micro SUV S101, next-gen Bolero U301, Quanto facelift) to fight Honda's challenge.

Honda clearly was the most successful OEM in the previous financial year. Amaze & City were undoubtedly the pillars for its success and the diesel engine just laid the architecture for overall growth. It neatly overtook M&M's volumes many times last year and seems poised to clearly rank third this year. With the new Jazz launch scheduled in June 2015, we expect the OEM to grow even better.

Even with Zest & Bolt, Tata had to face a major de-growth of 19%. The Indian OEM is leaving no stone unturned to regain its lost ground and is planning aggressive product onslaught this year. Do expect the Kite sedan and hatchback and various refresh in its UV models. The Revetron petrol engine has still not got the acceptance it desired - market yet to accept Tata's offerings for personal use.

Toyota's growth was again led by Innova & Fortuner. The growth is also a resultant of the fact that Toyota's production was stopped for some period in FY13-14. This financial year remains to be a challenge as there are no major launches planned.

Ford's vision for India is questionable - Even with a star product in hand, the American automaker de-grew by 11% last FY! Their focus on exports and lack of support for Indian demand has costed dearly and has hit its reputation as well. Ford is planning to gain ground with Aspire - hope they plan it well and price it attractively.

Look at the Market Share of these OEM's:
Market Share - Passenger Cars
Two Wheelers Segment:
One Crore Sixty Lakhs Four Thousand & Five Eighty One two wheelers sold in last FY! No wonder, India is world's second largest two wheeler market. Do note that scooters contribute to 30% of overall 2-wheelers sales! (45,05,529 scooters). Hence Honda could make a strong presence in the Indian market with the blockbuster sales of its scooter offerings - Activa & Deo. FY 2014-15 also was significant in terms of sales of high-end bikes. The growth of high-end bike segment has made us realize the tremendous potential the segment has. Even in times of turmoil, high end bikes successfully grew double and even triple digits last year!
India's Top 2-wheeler OEMs
It'll not be wrong if we say that Hero Moto Corp is the Maruti of 2 wheelers! The Indian two wheeler manufacturer stays strong at 40.19% Market Share and grew at a respectable 5% last FY. Maestro & Pleasure did help the OEM to gain some lost ground in Scooter segment - however, Activa's demand remains to be unshaken. It is still vouching strong on its most successful model - Splendor and has recently started aggressive campaign behind the brand promoting it as the world's most fuel efficient bike(with i3s technology). It is also investing big time to develop future line of products and innovative technology.

Honda's surge in growth has been a matter of envy for other 2 wheeler manufacturers and the Japanese OEM has took right steps in the right direction. The dealer expansion was extremely aggressive and has fueled the said growth. However, it is time that it sheds its dependency on scooterettes and expand strong product lineup in other categories as well.

TVS overtook Bajaj as India's third biggest 2-wheeler OEM. Reason said - Wego & Jupiter laid the foundation for the growth. No presence of scooter models in Bajaj's portfolio has hit it hard and TVS could manage to launch attractive options in the segment.

Bajaj however is planning to strengthen its higher capacity motorcycle offerings with mutiple launches in 150 cc category (say RS 200, AS 200, RS 150, AS 150, CS 400 & SS 400). It has also made strong plans to revive its Discover & CT brand as well.

Mahindra 2 wheelers had the worst performance in previous FY - Centuro did show some promise initially, but later was a dud due to product issues. Also the plan to leverage scooter demand through Gusto, but it couldn't perform as well.

Piaggio's USP as a high-end & fashionable scooter lost steam and the OEM had to suffer a de-growth of 12%. The brand requires some novelty and intelligent brand building to bounce back.

Royal Enfield, Harley Davidson & Triumph proved India's mettle as a strong market for high end bikes and they could cash on the demand for premium bikes. Many of these manufacturers are planning manufacturing base in India to reduce the import duty and even start export from here. Royal Enfield volumes is just unbelievable - It is selling in almost equal numbers to Suzuki in India! With better production capability, RE is bound to increase its volumes exponentially in coming days.

Let's look at the Market Share of these OEM's:
Market Share - Two Wheelers
FY 2015-16 will see a lot of push for 'Make in India' and can witness a lot of players setting their manufacturing base here. Also the dynamics of the industry will change based on the acceptance of new line of products and categories. Do expect the industry to perform slowly - and as said in the beginning, only the best will survive.

* Sale - refers to the offtake data (billing from OEM to authorized dealer)

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

List of Automotive Plants in India

While the Modi government is gung-ho on 'Make in India' strategy; Indian Automobile manufacturing has progressed to respectable levels already. Indian Automobile Industry currently accounts to 22% of country's manufacturing GDP and is one of the biggest job creator in the subcontinent! India is poised to become the world's third largest auto manufacturer in the world by 2020. As of today, India is largest three wheeler market in the world, second largest two-wheeler market and the fourth largest tractor market in the world!

India being a vast territory, we wanted to aggregate the state-wise locations of the manufacturing plants - hence, we have classified and collated the list for ease of understanding. The methodology for the same has been:
1. Vehicle Class has been given a priority - to enable clarity. For Ex: Even though Mahindra Trucks & XUV 500 are being manufctured in the same plant (Chakan, M'rashtra); we have taken the count twice for explicitly mentioning the class.
2. We have ranked the states depending on the count of class - Maharashtra ranks 1, TN at 2nd position, etc. However, the ranking maybe different based on vehicle production - it'll discussed separately.
3. Manufacturer would be mentioned multiple times with the same location in the list - Do refer the class for better understanding. Also the same class may have multiple locations - Ex: M&M Tractors plants being present at Kandivili, Nagpur, Jaipur... 
Source: Wikipedia
India is currently having an annual production capacity of 17.5 million vehicles and we have the manufacturing bases across the country for all range of vehicles. However, two hubs have grown to enormous size in past 2 decades - Chennai Auto Hub (TN) & Pune Auto Hub (M'rashtra). Chennai Auto Hub is rightfully touted as Detroit of Asia and is looking forward to become the largest auto hub in the world. It houses Hyundai, Ford, Renault, Volvo, Mitsubishi, Nissan, BMW, Hindustan Motors, Daimler, Caparo, Mini & Datsun. With these many auto manufacturers on-board Chennai auto hub accounts to 35% of revenue share and hefty 60% of India's auto exports.

The Pune Hub houses auto majors such as Audi, VW, Skoda, GM, Tata Motors, M&M, Mercedes Benz, JLR, Fiat & Force Motors - contribue 33% of Market Share. Third in the list is NCR cluster - Maruti Suzuki being the biggie. Gujarat is growing steeply and already has Tata Motors (manufacturing the Nano), Ford, Maruti & Peugeot plants. 
Source: Business Today
Such vast capacities from these units have made India an Export hub as well. OEM's are strategically utilizing the capacity to cater to the Rural Demand and also International Markets depending on the volatility. This has further ensured that the OEM's manufacture world-class products right here. Also the launch of newer models has been made faster. Do take a look at the manufacturing capacity of India's top passenger car makers: 

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Top 10 cars for FY 2014-15

It is interesting to see that the top 10 car brands collectively sold 13.53,772 units in FY 2014-15 which is almost 50% of the overall automobile sales in India! That signifies how unique Indian market is. Out of the top 10 brands, 5 brands belong to Maruti Suzuki - don't be surprised that Maruti Suzuki even garnered 46% Market Share in the Indian Automobile space last year. And these 5 brands collectively sold an astonishing 9.12.415 units for Maruti last year.
Source: HT
1. Maruti Alto: The world's best selling car has set a benchmark which is difficult to emulate. Alto is now India's best selling for 11th year in a row! Maruti has ensured continuous sale of the brand by getting regular updates on the car (say a peppier 1000 cc engine or an AMT option). Last year, Alto also became the world's cheapest automatic car (with AMT).
2. Maruti Dzire: The carline was untouched by the launch of Amaze, Xcent and continues to grow stronger month on month. It also successfully overtook its smaller and cheaper sibling Swift by quiet a margin. It has surely made the sub-4 mtr compact sedan segment a whole lot desirable for other OEM's.
3. Maruti Swift: The premium hatchback is still the favorite of youth and the numbers are a testimony to that.
4. Maruti Wagon R: This car enjoys no direct competition and makes us wonder how it sells this much! The uglier Stingray added to the overall volumes and the brand contributing significantly to Maruti's numbers.
5. Mahindra Bolero: It is the ONLY SUV in the top 10 list and is still the favorite of rural consumers. It enjoys unprecedented brand equity in upcountry markets and has been Mahindra's best selling model of all time!
6. Hyundai Grand i10: The Grand i10 proved to be the closest competition to Swift and has gained considerable acceptance amongst the buyers. It offered features that were unheard of in the segment and has proved vital for its overall success. However, it did cannibalize the sales of the smaller i10 & bigger Xcent to an extent.
7. Hyundai Elite i20: It proved how Indians would accept an hatchback at the price of a sedan, if it has the right set of oomph & functionality. The premium hatchback's volumes has been a stunner and is a BIG success for Hyundai.
8. Hyundai Eon: It is a very competent product, but its volumes are way behind the leader 'Alto'. However, Hyundai is leaving no stone unturned to up the game in the segment through Eon.
9. Honda City: The latest generation Honda City proved to be the most successful City for Honda till date in India! And no wonder this had to be the Diesel-engine effect. It completely overshadowed competition such as Hyundai Verna, Ford Fiesta, etc and is still the most loved sedan in its segment.
10. Maruti Omni: Why don't we have a competition for this product? - This is what i think time and again. Omni still manages to sell over 6k Omni's every month and none of the OEM's dare to launch a product in the segment?

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Mileage ka Hero

In a recent test conducted by Government's iCat (International Centre for Automotive Technology), Hero Splendor iSmart returned a mileage of 102.5 kmpl! Hence iSmart claims to be the World's most fuel efficient motorcycle. While these mileage figures are unheard of, Indian 2 wheeler manufacturers are fighting hard to showcase their products with the highest mileage. Indian customers have always been sensitive towards mileage and who can forget our 'kitna deti hai' craze?
Mileage Champions
While we have been ranking various brands based on sales numbers, we couldn't stop ourselves from posting the rank of these 2-wheeler brands based on their mileage. Do note that all brands mentioned above are entry level 100 cc motorbikes. Also it is not co-incidental that the numero uno brand in this list is also the no.1 selling motorcycle of India and largest selling motorcycle brand of the world! Splendor sells an average of 1.75 lakh units every month and contributes nearby 35-40% of Hero Moto Corp's sales.

The race started off last month when Bajaj aired the World's Mileage Champion ad last month and boasted that the New Bajaj Platina can offer world's best mileage of 96.9 kmpl. And the latest claim by Hero is a reply to Bajaj's claim. Have a look at Bajaj's ad aired -


We strongly believe that this competition is going to be much fiercer in the coming times and consumers will benefit from much fuel efficient motorcycles.   

Monday, April 6, 2015

Cars & Cricket

Cars fascinate the Indian IPL players as well. Cricketers rightfully utilize the money they earn in exotic cars and fulfill their desire for speed and power. Interesting to see how these different players own different brands which reflect their lifestyle & personality as well.

A look at the machines and their owners:
1. M S Dhoni: Ferrari 599 GTO
Like India's most successful captain, Ferrari 599 GTO is Ferrari's fastest road car ever. With staggering 670 PS at 8250 rpm & 620 NM torque at 6500 rpm, GTO can reach 100 kmph in just 3.3 seconds and has a top speed of 320 kmph!
Dhoni's love for bikes has been known for quiet some time (he owns beauties such as Confederate Hellcat X132, Ducati 1098, Harley Fatboy, Yamaha RD350 & Yamaha YZF600 Thundercat) - But he couldn't resist owning the masterpiece from Ferrari. 

2. Yuvraj Singh: Lamborghini Gallardo
Yuvraj Singh's flamboyancy is known to all of us and Gallardo perfectly suits this cricketer superstar. Gallardo has been Lamborghini's best selling model and is named after a famous breed of fighting bull. The Italian supercar sports a V10 engine which spurts out 552 bhp and 540 Nm of torque.

3. Harbhajan Singh: Hummer H3
Punjabi's are known for their love for SUV's and Bhajji owns the 'Baap of all SUV's' - the Hummer H3. The off-road monster has a 3.7 litre engine with 242 horses on offer.

4. Suresh Raina: Porsche Boxter S
The Chennai Indian star owns the legendary sports car from Porsche which has 326 bhp to offer and is powered by a 3.4 litre engine. No wonder the newly married sportstar's drive has to be utterly romantic!  

5. Virat Kohli: Audi R8 V10
The Royal Challenger star does have a royal taste in cars - Owns a 5.2 litre V10 Audi R8 V10 that offers 541 bhp and 540 Nm of torque. It runs 0-100 km in 3.6 sec on road - speed is somewhat close to how Kohli scores on field. 

Sunday, April 5, 2015

VW T-ROC coming to INDIA??

2015 Seoul Motor Show : Volkswagen pavilion
Though Toyota is the World leader in Car sales it seems Volkswagen is up with its strategies to take on the coveted No. 1 position. If you don't believe have a look at this product VW T-ROC and this time in Hyundai's stronghold South Korea. 
Production of this crossover to begin by 2016-17.
Volkswagen Korea has unveiled the 2-door crossover T-ROC concept at the ongoing 2015 Seoul Motor Show. Under the theme “Innovative technology and design”, VW exhibits cars of future mobility designs, armed with high-tech innovation.

The T-ROC concept was revealed for the first time at the Geneva Motor Show last year. The Polo-sized compact crossover is built on the VW Group’s renowned MQB platform, which underpins a variety of cars from the Skoda Superb to the Audi TT. The design of the T-ROC demonstrates the design language of future SUVs and crossovers from the VW stable.
The concept uses VW’s 2.0-liter TDI diesel powertrain that develops 184 hp and 380 Nm from 1,750 rpm, which is already in use with the Golf GTD. It is capable of accelerating from 0-100 km/h in just 6.9 seconds and achieve a top-speed of 210 km/h. A new 7-speed DSG automatic transmission and ‘4Motion’ four wheel drive system also find place in the T-ROC. The car has a large ‘targa’ roof panel and two doors. On the inside, the concept features shiny metal knobs and fixtures, with an all-digital dashboard.
The T-ROC concept may beget into a compact car to enter the B-Segment SUV arena to match the Renault Captur, Ford EcoSport, Nissan Juke, Honda HR-V, etc. The production version of the T-ROC is expected to be ready not before 2016, with significant changes like five doors and a hard roof. It will be positioned below the Tiguan
It was reported last month that the VW India is planning to bring the Tiguan compact SUV to India.
Though the Concept Crossover looks promising the feasibility of this product has to be explored in India & and as always pricing will be very critical for its success.
Some pictures for your reference from the 2014 Geneva Motor Show:
Source:Indianautosblog.com

Friday, April 3, 2015

Indian Car Sales Figures - March 2015

March has always been a positive month for the Auto Industry considering the year end depreciation benefits, big ticket discounts by OEM's and the assumption that prices will increase from April. Also March being the end of financial year, all manufacturers push for achieving the year's target shortfall.
March 2015 Sales Figures - Pan India
Maruti - Alto, Dzire, Swift & Wagon R deliver their consistent performance as always. Ciaz numbers sees a month-on-month dip and is a concern for the brand - Do note that the competition Honda City has posted its best performance for FY and also Hyundai has attempted to revive its falling Verna sales by launching the refreshed 4S Verna. The competition for Ciaz is going to be tough and the coming months will be crucial for the brand to sustain and prove its mettle. It is surprising how brands such as Eeco, Omni & Gypsy are contributing to the volumes - 12,768 units combined (which is more than the monthly volumes of VW, GM, Fiat, Ford, Skoda, etc)! No direct competition for these cars and their undoubted value for money proposition has worked in their favor.
Hyundai - The Korean auto major is in full-throttle mode and has given everything to increase its pie in the Indian market. No other company has been as aggressive as Hyundai in recent times considering the updates/new product launches in past 18 months. Within 8 months of the launch of elite i20, the cross variant was offered to the Indian customers in Mar'15 - No wonder, the brand crosses 12k units for the first time in its lifecycle! Hyundai was hence successful to post its ever highest offtake numbers in March 2015.
Honda - Its numbers has been nothing but a fairy tale in the past financial year. Even the Honda officials wouldn't have anticipated the growth the company experienced in the last 18 months! And the performance is improving consistently - City delivers its highest offtake figures and misses 10k mark by a whisker. The Verna's & Ciaz's of the world couldn't shake City's dominance. Even Amaze has a stellar comeback and posts respectable 8.1k units. Mobilio is trying hard to gain acceptance in the under-developed MUV segment. Brio too tries hard to signify its existence. It is now crucial for Honda to maintain its position in the THIRD slot and gun for the second (can the new Jazz make this dream a reality?)
Mahindra - The homegrown SUV major has tried hard to sustain its rank, but Honda managed to snatch the position. This was a result of lot of unsuccessful launches from the automaker - Quanto, Vibe, Rexton, etc. The volumes are completely dependent of 3 carlines - Bolero, Scorpio & XUV 500. We are happy to see the Bolero figures crossing the 10k mark after a long gap of 11 months! Is the slowdown in rural market affecting M&M's volumes?
Tata - It is disheartening to see Bolt & Zest's volumes being lower then its elder siblings - Indica & Indigo. The average consumer is still wary to accept the brands for personal use and the newer offerings have not taken off the way Tata would have expected. Safari experiences a continuous decline - maybe the update expected on the carline is on the cards.
Toyota - Seeing Innova's & Fortuner's volumes, one can understand why this Japanese carmaker the no.1 brand worldwide! Selling these volumes in high-end segment is never easy. The philosophy continues with Corolla as well the numbers is currently hovering at an average of 850 units.

Snapshot of how March 2015 defined the performance of the Auto Industry for FY15 -
Source : ET
Also an interesting snapshot of the overall Automotive Industry for Mar'15:
Source: AutocarPro
 
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