Sunday, November 15, 2015

The Way Forward for Brand Chevrolet in India!

PS: It is a descriptive post. Suggest reading it entirely to understand the depth.
Well traffic is an overused and over abused word in Bangalore. It’s been 3 years and am in love with the city. Good people, excellent weather, happening night life, lazy brunches in cafés, it’s got everything you ask for. But getting to all these places that is a task in itself. When you are told you need to get somewhere in Bangalore a word starting with "F" comes to your mind. Well its fear, absolute fear of getting stuck in the road for hours. It's like Lord Kitchener pointing that finger at you in the famous WW-1 poster saying "You" are responsible for this traffic.

Yesterday however was a revelation. When I woke up in the morning to step out for work Google now told me it will take me 10 minutes less than usual because of "less traffic". Wow! Indian festivals have that impact. I immediately got into the Vettel mode and my humble Chevy beat suddenly looked like a Red bull racing mean machine. A slight drizzle ensured that the weather was at its best! The beat over the week has seen only the first 3 gears during my commute and the 4 gear seemed like a candidate waiting for his interview turn. The fifth gear, well was next to non-existent.

Today however I had decided to push her and beat the clock to work. As always Google was right, traffic was less and the roads were free with a slight drizzle just enough to keep the roads wet. I revved my engine and the beat responded as if it’s been woken up after ages. I kept the engine on boil between 2-3k rpm continuously and the little Chevy was upto the game. She was charging well on the wet roads with a hint of under steer maybe because of the wet road and the fact that I was pushing the car. We hit the ring road and for the first time in ages hit a ton on that road and soon enough I spotted a speed breaker which on normal days was obsolete because there was no speed and seemed like a hump. I braked and expected a rally like jump over it, but was surprised how the little beat managed to hold ground not lose traction on a significantly wet road and yet come to a respectable 20 kmph within seconds and soon enough to not mess with the speed breaker. I was amazed and impressed at this little car's capability which I had never noticed on a normal day. I decided to test it a little more and revved again after the speed breaker. The 1.2 litre motor responded and I was able to hit a ton again. The mid-range is not that good but today I got to explore the top end of the car which I have never experienced over the past 3 years because I never got the chance. As these thoughts were flowing in my head I clearly missed a huge puddle right at the exit of the flyover. The beat hit the puddle at 90 and I hung on. Again yet another surprise, the Chevy held on and didn't lose the straight line stability. It transferred the feedback via the steering that I had messed up but didn't let the car get disturbed. This was amazing because the puddle was deep enough to reach above my fog lamps and I was sure that there would be some damage to the bumper. With a heavy heart I got down to check the bumper and found it to be intact as if nothing happened. Well when I was told in most of the meetings with the dealer about the build quality of Beat which at that point pointless theory without experience. Today I got to see it and experience it - and was amazed at what this little Chevy pulled out.

I settled into a saner sort of driving and started thinking, this is a company which pioneered in safety and introduced stuff like seat belts which changed the course of automotive history and made cars for more than 100 years, then why is it failing in India? I have read testimonials of customers who have walked out of crashes unscarred because of Chevy's build quality and safety and have seen customers give high regard to Chevy for the way they are built and for the legacy. But I feel Chevy has ignored India as a market when other players have focussed well on the sub-continent. Let’s see the current scenario for the American Automaker –
Sales Trend - Chevrolet in India
Chevy’s sales have dropped 48% in year 2014 when compared to year 2011. Based on current sales (31528 units till Oct’15) and forecast this year, we expect GM to close at ~38000 units which will lead to a 66% drop vis-à-vis 2011! But what has led to such decline for an Iconic Brand which had enviable status in India at a particular time:
·         One of the oldest Automobile Companies in the world (as of date, it is 104 years old!)
·         First Automobile Company to open an Assembly Plant in India (way back in 1928!)
·         Chevy vehicles were widely featured in early Bollywood movies (most famous were the Impala’s) and helped Chevrolet to gain a premium status in Indian consumers mind
·         Chevy was a global marque and had immensely helped GM to remain the No.1 Car Maker for 77 years in a row! (until Toyota snatched the top spot)
·         Chevrolet was the key to GM’s revival hopes in India and had shown potential initially
·         Spark, Beat & Tavera were once known to be the benchmark in their respective segments
·         One of the few automakers to have a product in every segment (Spark – Entry level hatchback, Beat – Mid-hatchback, Sail UVA - premium hatch, Sail NB – Sedan, Tavera & Enjoy – MUV, Cruze – premium Sedan, Captiva/now Trailblazer – SUV)
·         Extensive network in India – Over 260 dealerships and similar number of Workshops!  
So with these many advantages, what went wrong?
Ø  Multiple failed products – Actually terming these products as failures would be unfair, however GM pulling over these products from the portfolio backfired (Opel Astra, Opel Corsa, Opel Corsa Sail, Chevrolet Aveo, Chevrolet Aveo-UVA, Chevrolet Forester, Chevrolet Optra)
Ø  Negative Word of Mouth – Once the aforementioned products were stopped, the existing owners faced trouble in servicing, availability of spares and finally the resale value. Though the owners were extremely happy with the performance of their cars, long-term ownership experience was jittery
Ø  No Unique Brand Philosophy – Though Chevy had an American DNA, the products didn’t - Spark, Beat and Captiva were designed by Daewoo/GM Korea; Sail and Enjoy were SAIC (GM China) offerings, Tavera was nothing but a rebadged Isuzu!
Ø  Dismal Dealership Experience – The dealerships were not standard across and the lacklustre sales attitude cost them dearly with the loss of customer faith and trust. The dealer infrastructure as well in many cases were not projecting the premium brand image that otherwise was required.
Ø  Improper Product Planning – Beat was an extremely promising product when it was launched and performed impressively for quite some time. However, no major updates on the brand made it lose steam in the Indian market and sales went down bottom. The story remains the same for Tavera, Cruze, etc. Also the manufacturer’s incapability of bringing India specific products led to the downfall
Ø  High Maintenance & Serviceability Concerns – A frequent concern shared by Chevy customers. Though Chevrolet did mega campaigning in the name of Chevrolet Promise to highlight low maintenance; the customers weren’t impressed.
Ø  Product Issues & Intermittent Recalls – Issues related to brakes, clutch, etc were common in the new offerings. Also the recall of Sail within first 6 months itself impacted the brand negatively. Tavera emission goof up added to the despair.
Ø  Over Discounted Brand – The brand ads started looking like a grocery shop ad with discounts on ALL its product range! The theme lost appeal on the product characteristics and in a while meant demeaning in overall.
Ø  Low Survey Ratings – As per the latest 2015 JD Power Survey report, Chevrolet stood last in Sales Satisfaction and 8th in Service Satisfaction!
Recently GM has shown promise to invest even higher in India and work towards increasing its Market Share in the sub-continent. So what will work for this cult yet damaged brand –
§  1 Blockbuster Model – Indian consumer these days forgive very easily. Learn something from your fellow American (Ford). Ecosport did the magic initially and now they’ve brought Aspire & New Figo. That 1 crucial mass product will prove to be the breakthrough to initiate the repair of Indian Operations
§  Revamp Dealership Network – We appreciate the Automakers decision to cut down dealers (though we are still unaware if the good dealers are also lost). However, the dealer network needs to be supported to standardize their infrastructure and workshops.
§  Connect with the Existing Customers – Chevy owns a handsome number of customers already and has to make the connection much stronger. So an over-dedicated Customer Care team and super-natural customer connect initiatives are the need of the hour.
§  American DNA + Indian Usage – Right combination to win the Indian Consumer. Though, this combination doesn’t mean to bring American Gas Guzzlers to India (name Trailblazer). We need funky looking car, with acres of space inside, run miles with great efficiency, have loads of features and costs less as well.
§  Aggressive campaigning of Chevrolet Promise – Yes, the brand did see some positivity when Late Karl Slym assured customers of low maintenance when the program was launched. The campaign dwindled and neither Chevy nor dealers seem interested. Can we have Mr. Arvind Saxena lead the charge and overhaul the campaign?
§  Focus on ALL models – There was a time when Spark caught up well in the Indian market and Beat was launched. Chevy’s entire focus on Beat, slowed down the Spark and today Spark is off the shelf! The story remains similar for the remaining portfolio and the varying focus by the OEM have killed some potent products. Hence, focus on the ENTIRE portfolio is required to make it big in India.
If only Chevy had paid more attention to India, and given India specific products by using their vast know how of the industry, we would have seen a different Chevrolet in India. Hope the revival that Mary Barra has been speaking about has all this. Till then am happy with my little Chevy Beat but always concerned as to what will happen if God forbid something goes wrong and I have to replace some part. Till then good luck Chevy and hopefully you will get your act straight and not fade away!!!

(Author's Profile: Manu Sasidharan. Am a hardcore petrol head, an auto enthusiast and an amateur designer. I have been in close touch with the industry for a long time and am abreast with the action in the automotive sphere. Driving is my passion and combined with a love for travelling makes me a nomad by nature. On the education front, I have done my Engg in Electrical and Electronics from Cochin university and my Management studies from Symbiosis Pune.)

Friday, November 13, 2015

Hiring an Ola/Uber versus Buying a New Car

While Ola and Uber have indeed been disruptive in their business model and have changed the way people travel in cities; the need of personal transportation cannot be eliminated. While auto companies are worried on this trend and has made Mr. Anand Mahindra himself to express his concern last month – ‘There is going to be increasing number of people who would want access to transportation and not own object of transportation.’ The automakers surely seem concerned that these Taxi Aggregator companies would eat onto the new car sales and consumers will lose interest in owning cars.  The concern seems valid considering the mentioned statistics -
  • ·         Ola plans to diversify itself into leasing business and initially pump in Rs.5000 crore into its captive leasing subsidiary (initial investment to be Rs.500 crore)!
  • ·         Ola to purchase upto 1 Lakh cars by 2016 and offer on lease to drivers!
  • ·         Ola already has an existing network of 2,50,000 lakh cars attached to it.
  • ·         Ola is currently operating at 7,50,000 rides a day across 100 cities.
  • ·         Uber is close second and has 1,50,000 drivers on it network as of date.
  • ·         Uber also has aggressive expansion plans is targeting 10 Lakh rides/day within next 6-9 months
  • ·         Taxi Market in India set to grow at 20% annually to $28 billion in next 5 years!
The concern is also valid by the fact that a lot of Ola & Uber taxi’s were purchased in past 3 years – considering the aforementioned numbers, 4 Lakh cars are already attached to OLA+Uber. However, the sales of these cars have not added to the overall car sales and the overall scenario has still been worrisome – New Car Sales is struggling to project growth and had indeed been the toughest years in the industry. To support the argument, Economic Times shared a calculation on how Ola/Uber proves to be practical than purchasing a new car –
Source: ET
Descriptive Calculation:
New Car Ownership Cost for 3 year (New Car considered here is Maruti Swift Petrol LXI with ex-showroom cost of Rs.4,78,000): 

Cost of using Ola/Uber for 3 years (without taking inflation/price hike/peak time charges):
As per the above calculation; both Uber & Ola project to be cost-effective and lighter on pocket. However, one needs to consider the price hikes that the operator can substantially do in 3 years and also the additional peak time charges these aggregators levy needs to be counted as well. We have taken 20% hike YoY for the consideration:
This clearly highlights that Ola can prove costly as well! Let's consider the bigger picture on why the lighter charge by Taxi aggregator companies can vary - 
  • - Ola/Uber is heavily discounting the current rides to get people addicted to the platform
  • - All aggregators are incurring hefty losses* (focus now on increasing Market Share)
  • - Once people are used to the trend, price hikes will be imminent - which will prove to be a costly affair for the daily commuter. These companies already charge 2x-3x based on the cab demand!
*Ola already incurred over Rs.50 crore losses in previous 2 fiscals (2013-14 & 2012-13).
Source: Business Today
Also the Advantages & Disadvantages of hiring a Ola/Uber for daily commute is as mentioned:
ADVANTAGES:
  • a. No Investment: For students, fresh professionals, etc purchasing car can be a big commitment. Ola/Uber is indeed a pocket friendly alternative
  • b. Blessing in Traffic: For residents of Bangalore/Delhi/Mumbai - driving in traffic is the biggest concern. What better way than ride in a chauffeur driven car and also have scope to utilize the time while travelling!
  • c. Settle in new cities easily: Finding it difficult to explore routes in new cities. The neighboring Taxi guy can prove to be your best friend!
  • d. Luxury of being driven by a Chauffeur: Explore the second row seats! Also escape the fear of accidents, road rash, etc 
  • Easy Availability: With multiple players and even higher number of taxis on road, getting a cab is a 5-minute affair these days!
DISADVANTAGES: 
  • a. No Sense of Ownership: Car Purchase for majority of Indians is a matter of prestige and is linked to a sea of aspirations. Many customers buy a car to project a better lifestyle and car is much more then mere mode of transportation!
  • b. Emergency Hassles: There is no better alternative to a own car in emergency situations (hospitals, schools, interviews, etc). 
  • c. Dependency: There are multiple scenarios, where your cab booking is cancelled or the cabs are over-booked. Also owning a car always has a CONVENIENCE factor attached with it.
  • d. Missing Driving Pleasure: Many of us drive our cars for the intangible pleasure of driving. Can you get that in a cab?
  • e. The choice of Car itself: Majority of the cabs today are the base variants or mostly Tata Indica. What about your personal taste of cars and how can you decide in which brand you want to be driven around?
  • f. Safety: Incidents of irresponsible drivers causing nuisance can make you think twice as well.
Taxis these days are an international trend and their particular effect on New Car Sales is nowhere specifically seen. Take Uber as an example - It has not affected the biggest car market in the world (US) which is almost at a saturation stage (700 car penetration in a population of 1000!). We at Management Punditz very strongly believe that the uprising of Taxi usage in India will seldom have any effect on New Car Sales and in turn will add to the Overall Sales. India with a current car population penetration of 20 in 1000 people, has an immeasurable potential for New Car Sales and request OEMs to focus on understanding the consumer psyche much better rather than worrying on Taxi Aggregators as of now. (Note: Even these Taxi Aggregators are consumers by itself!).

Saturday, November 7, 2015

U.S. Car Sales Data - October 2015

While we do not cover the automobile (light vehicles) sales of United States, we couldn't resist studying their sales report of October 2015 for the following reasons -
     1. The U.S. auto industry reported the best October Sales in a Decade!
     2. The complex nature of the U.S auto sales relatively to India
     3. The sheer size of the American Car Market - No.1 Automobile market in World
     4. The best performers in the American soil vis-a-vis our subcontinent
     5. Recovery of the American automobile demand and a double digit growth in Oct'15!

Generally, October is a slow month for American OEMs. But favorable economic conditions and slew of incentives led the OEMs to escape the rather slow month and deliver a growth of 13.6% growth YoY basis. The figures looked like this -
October 2015 Sales Data
The growth was led by Light Trucks which in actual constitutes to over 57% of overall car sales! The OEMs with light trucks in their portfolio (GM, Ford, FCA) benefited the most and emerged as front runners in OEM rank tally. The drop in fuel/gas prices and lower interest rates were the key to growth. The positivity is further enabling the industry to establish a record calendar year and crossing 21 million vehicles for CY 2015 looks possible. See the trend here:
Light Vehicles Sales Trend & OEM growth statistics
When we compare this data to Indian market - Oct'15 Indian car sales for all OEM's included was 2,40,760 while GM alone was able to sell 2,62,993. Thus, GM Oct'15 sales > Indian Car Sales for Oct'15. Also small cars and compact sedans dominate the sales in the Indian market. Whereas, light trucks dominated the top 3 selling automobiles in US - No. 1 being Ford F-Series, 2nd spot held by Chevy Silverado and RAM 1500-3500 stood 3rd! A look at the top 16 best sellers -
Top Sellers
The mentioned statistics is also very interesting - cars which are blockbusters in US, struggle for volumes in India:

Also to be noted is the Electric vehicles sales in US. Around 10,616 electric cars were sold in Oct'15 - More than what Ford (all brands included) could sell in India in Oct'15! Undoubtedly, Tesla emerged the No.1 electric car OEM and Model S led the charts with sales of more than 3.1k units! Statistics of the top selling Electric cars is as mentioned:
We are amazed by the way American Auto Industry has evolved and is currently the highest volume churner for Automobile OEMs. The difference of US & Indian market is exemplary and that is why see so much variance in performance of the OEMs in both the markets. 

References:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Indian Car Sales Figures - October 2015

October proved to be the blockbuster month that the industry was waiting for a veryyyy long time! Indian Auto Industry (Passenger Cars) proudly posted a double digit growth of over 20% and saw the likes of Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai delivering their all time highest performances respectively. Apart from Toyota, VW & GM; all other OEMs registered a YoY growth in October. (Trivia to be noted - Toyota, VW & GM are infact the top 3 car makers worldwide and are not doing that well in the subcontinent!). Let's look how these OEMs fared -
Source - AutocarPro
 Festive demand was clearly evident and the aforementioned data also includes dispatches to dealers anticipating the Diwali rush as well. The new launches also supported the excitement and bought in higher enquiries to the respective showrooms. Gamechanger products were launched in Oct'15 - Baleno for Nexa and Trailblazer for GM. Though Baleno would be instrumental for Nexa outlets to jump in the volumes race; Trailblazer has a hectic task of reviving Chevy's brand perception in India. Also to note the volumes of the most potent competition Alto ever had - Kwid. Let's look on the model-wise numbers:
October 2015 Sales Figures - Pan India
-- Dzire continues its dream run and crossed 20k figure for the third time in past 5 months! We have never seen a brand grow such rapidly at this stage of product cycle. Dzire is surely desired quite highly by Indian consumers and is breaking sales records consistently. With this pace, it would in meantime dethrone Alto from the top slot. Also to be noted is Eeco's performance - which crosses 6k units after 36 months! We still wonder where these many Eeco's go? Swift and Ritz deliver as usual. More important is the volumes Maruti is gaining through NEXA - S-Cross & Baleno together post 7246 nos offtake. With mere 100 outlets, 7246 units is very respectable and its contribution to parent company volumes is admirable as well. Seeing Baleno's response and Maruti's hold on the market; we expect the numbers to go even stronger in future.
-- Hyundai is leaving no stone unturned to improve its market share in India and now has the right set of products infused in almost ALL segments. Eon & i10(entry-level hatchback), Grand i10 (hatchback), Elite i20 (premium hatchback), Xcent (Compact Sedan), Verna (C-segment Sedan), Elantra (D-segment sedan), Creta (Crossover SUV), Santa Fe (premium SUV). Only MUV is not being catered to currently. Grand i10 crosses 14k mark for the first time and and stands only 3.5k units short of the segment leader Swift!
-- Mahindra makes a strong comeback into the third position. TUV300 maintains its 4.5k mark and contributes decently to the Indian SUV major. Happy to see Bolero cross 7k figures after 4 months - it is imperative for M&M to inhibit cannibalization of Bolero from TUV and vice-versa. XUV 5 double ohh also joins the party by having its best offtake performance of past 35 months!
-- Honda impresses with YoY growth (52.29%), however loses its third position to Mahindra. City & Amaze makes into the top 10 selling cars list. Jazz now seems to stabilize at ~4.5k units and we expect similar volumes ahead as well.
-- Ford crosses 10k mark for the first time after Sep'2013! Ford now has the right arsenal in its army and its time for it to conquer its territory.

Top 25 selling cars of October 2015:

Sunday, November 1, 2015

October 2015 car sales - Snapshot

Source: Business Standard
Detailed Model-wise report will be shared shortly. 

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Toyota - World No.1

Basis January to September 2015 global Automotive Sales, Toyota overtakes Volkswagen by mere ~60,000 units! A look at the top 3 Automobile OEMs:
Top 3 OEM's - International Car Sales (SOURCE)
While Toyota experienced a slight de-growth it was able to dethrone VW from the top slot that the European major had gained during first 6 months of the year. VW Scandal has hit the car maker real bad and it seems impossible for the carmaker to regain the position back. However, the top 3 stand close to each other even now and even the slightest change in big markets can benefit the respective OEM. To analyse the top international markets, lets us assess the volumes accordingly:
Size of Global Biggies (Countries) - SOURCE
China still manages as the Biggest Car market in the world and is clearly ahead of US. Also to note is that India has the second best YoY growth (after EU+EFTA) and makes it an important destination for car makers. We wouldn't be surprised to see India overtake Japan in overall sales within next 3 years. But the gap to cover by the Indian market seems phenomenal (Chinese market is still six times bigger than that of the sub-continent). Also the Indian market is stunted with single digit growth for quite some time now. We expect the 2016 Auto Expo the change the course and the focus in bringing updated products will help the industry gain a strong leap forward.

*US, Brazil & Russia sales include Light vehicles.
*EU+EFTA - European Union & European Free Trade Association

Friday, October 23, 2015

Indian Commercial Vehicle Sales Figures - Sep 2015

Management Punditz yet strives to diversify the Sales Data availability for the automobile industry. In the aforementioned endeavor, we present the September 2015 Offtake data (sale from OEM to dealership) for Commercial Vehicles and categorized in M&HCVs and LCVs. Each category has been sub-divided to Passenger segment & Load Carrier Segment for clarity.

Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles:

Passenger Carriers -

Load Carriers -

Light Commercial Vehicles:

Passenger Carriers -

Load Carriers -

Overall Commercial Vehicle Sales Performance Snapshot:

OEM-wise data:
Source: AutocarPro
 
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